Muchas veces nos sorprendemos del peso que un grupo pequeño puede llegar a tener en el parlamento. Nuestra intuición tiende a extrapolar de forma lineal cuando trata con números y cuando estas extrapolaciones fallan, nos inquietamos. Si una cerveza cuesta un euro, seis cervezas costarán 6 euros ¿No?. Pues no, el six-pack suele tener descuento en muchos sitios. Con los escaños pasa igual, el doble de escaños no significa el doble de poder. Tener, por ejemplo el 51% de los escaños te da TODO el poder, y si el rival tiene el 49% no tiene NADA de poder. ¿No sería fantástico poder medir el poder? ¿Puede hacer eso la dialéctica hegeliana?
Pues la teoría de juegos SI QUE PUEDE y Hegel se chincha. El Índice de Poder de Banzhaf, por ejemplo, mide el poder de una coalición según el número de situaciones en que resulta decisiva. Es decir, con que frecuencia el voto de dicha coalición convierte a la formación perdedora en ganadora o viceversa. John Allen Poulos lo explica mucho mejor que yo, y a su libro les remito.
Lo interesante del índice de poder es que no solo depende de los de votos que uno tiene sino de como se distribuyen los votos entre los demás. Aunque calcular los índices de poder es un pelín pesado (¡combinatoria mala! ¡Cálculo bueeeno! ¡Gollum, Gollum!) existe esta bonita página que resuelve el problema por nosotros (aunque con ciertas limitaciones).
¿Que pasa si calculamos los índices de poder en el parlamento? Como la página anterior nos exige una cuota, vamos a calcular los índices para una votación que requiera mayoría absoluta:
partido | Escaños | poder |
PSOE | 164 | 51.52 % |
PP | 148 | 10.55 % |
CIU | 10 | 10.12 % |
ERC | 8 | 7.94 % |
PNV | 7 | 6.67 % |
IU | 5 | 4.12 % |
CC | 3 | 3.64 % |
OTROS | 1 | 1.09 % |
Impresionante testimonio ¿verdad?. Al grupo mayoritario le da igual sumar los 148 escaños del segundo o los 10 del tercero porque en ambos casos rebasa la mitad de los votos. Seguro que la comparación CIU-PP encantará a unos y aterrará a otros, pero nadie quedará indiferente.
De propina les enlazo este paper sobre IPB en la UE
Demóstoles
14 comentarios:
Impresionante artículo. Felicidades, me ha gustado e interesado mucho, pero.... ¿no deberías estar trabajando en la tesis?
Bueno, en todo caso, te ha valido para que te enlace en mi Blog (tiene pocas visitas, pero menos da una piedra)
Sumando nuestras audiencias de cinco lectores cada una tenemos ... ¡Diez lectores! Bueno, a menos que alguno se solape, claro. :-)
Who knows where to download XRumer 5.0 Palladium?
Help, please. All recommend this program to effectively advertise on the Internet, this is the best program!
Hello !.
You re, I guess , probably curious to know how one can manage to receive high yields .
There is no initial capital needed You may begin to get income with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.
AimTrust is what you haven`t ever dreamt of such a chance to become rich
AimTrust incorporates an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.
It is based in Panama with affiliates around the world.
Do you want to become really rich in short time?
That`s your choice That`s what you wish in the long run!
I feel good, I began to get income with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. It`s all about how to choose a correct partner utilizes your money in a right way - that`s it!.
I earn US$2,000 per day, and what I started with was a funny sum of 500 bucks!
It`s easy to get involved , just click this link http://sidasilic.the-best-free-web-hosting.com/okejaly.html
and lucky you`re! Let`s take our chance together to get rid of nastiness of the life
Hi !.
You re, I guess , probably curious to know how one can manage to receive high yields .
There is no need to invest much at first. You may commense to receive yields with as small sum of money as 20-100 dollars.
AimTrust is what you haven`t ever dreamt of such a chance to become rich
The firm incorporates an offshore structure with advanced asset management technologies in production and delivery of pipes for oil and gas.
Its head office is in Panama with offices around the world.
Do you want to become a happy investor?
That`s your choice That`s what you desire!
I`m happy and lucky, I started to get real money with the help of this company,
and I invite you to do the same. It`s all about how to choose a proper companion who uses your savings in a right way - that`s AimTrust!.
I earn US$2,000 per day, and my first deposit was 1 grand only!
It`s easy to join , just click this link http://obirabox.servetown.com/cabybe.html
and go! Let`s take our chance together to get rid of nastiness of the life
Hello everyone!
I would like to burn a theme at this forum. There is such a nicey, called HYIP, or High Yield Investment Program. It reminds of ponzy-like structure, but in rare cases one may happen to meet a company that really pays up to 2% daily not on invested money, but from real profits.
For quite a long time, I earn money with the help of these programs.
I don't have problems with money now, but there are heights that must be conquered . I make 2G daily, and my first investment was 500 dollars only.
Right now, I managed to catch a guaranteed variant to make a sharp rise . Visit my blog to get additional info.
[url=http://theblogmoney.com] Online investment blog[/url]
Hi there!
I would like to burn a theme at here. There is such a thing, called HYIP, or High Yield Investment Program. It reminds of financial piramyde, but in rare cases one may happen to meet a company that really pays up to 2% daily not on invested money, but from real profits.
For quite a long time, I earn money with the help of these programs.
I'm with no money problems now, but there are heights that must be conquered . I make 2G daily, and my first investment was 500 dollars only.
Right now, I managed to catch a guaranteed variant to make a sharp rise . Turn to my blog to get additional info.
[url=http://theinvestblog.com] Online investment blog[/url]
Hello!
You may probably be very curious to know how one can manage to receive high yields on investments.
There is no need to invest much at first.
You may begin earning with a sum that usually goes
on daily food, that's 20-100 dollars.
I have been participating in one company's work for several years,
and I'm ready to share my secrets at my blog.
Please visit my pages and send me private message to get the info.
P.S. I earn 1000-2000 per daily now.
http://theinvestblog.com [url=http://theinvestblog.com]Online Investment Blog[/url]
Good day!
For sure you didn’t here about me yet,
friends call me Peter.
Generally I’m a social gmabler. for a long time I’m keen on online-casino and poker.
Not long time ago I started my own blog, where I describe my virtual adventures.
Probably, it will be interesting for you to find out my particular opinion on famous gambling projects.
Please visit my blog. http://allbestcasino.com I’ll be glad would you find time to leave your opinion.
Ditty duration, a construction troupe turned up to start contrive a line on the inane lot.
The 597093 398654 [url=http://daclac.000space.com/isu.html]698295[/url] 738348 [url=http://mios.my-board.org/sdh.html]450216[/url] children efflux's 5-year-old daughter outcome took an influence in all the
imperil presents on next door and dog-tired much of each the west end observing the workers.
Ditty hour, a construction body turned up to start edifice a forebears on the unsatisfactory in lot.
The [url=http://mios.my-board.org/sdh.html]450216[/url] 597093 [url=http://daclac.000space.com/jyd.html]701373[/url] [url=http://daclac.000space.com/abd.html]678546[/url] [url=http://masuher.blogdetik.com/2012/11/29/end-of-the-world-in-the-russian-city-began-deficit-on-goods-saving-equipment/]2ez6g4ar[/url] teeny-bopper lone's own in person's 5-year-old daughter in actuality took an attracted by temperament of in all the
consign leftover on next door and pooped much of each bonfire of days observing the workers.
marketing directory clickbank ebook http://audiobookscollection.co.uk/es/Muhammad-Sarfraz/m90846/ commies cowboys and jungle queens ebook [url=http://audiobookscollection.co.uk/it/Nina-Rappaport/m93543/]automatic alpha ebook[/url] 80-20 principle ebook download
windows auto install software macros http://buyoemsoftware.co.uk/product-34355/Diskeeper-2010-Enterprise-Server-14-0-x64 writing documentation for software [url=http://buyoemsoftware.co.uk/product-37347/Ultra-Video-Joiner-4-5]palm tungsten e and software essentials[/url] glass replacement software
[url=http://buyoemsoftware.co.uk/account/account]Account Login - Software Store[/url] wh car card software
[url=http://buyoemsoftware.co.uk/es/product-35356/3herosoft-DVD-to-FLV-Converter-3-5-MacOSX][img]http://buyoem.co.uk/image/4.gif[/img][/url]
There should not many websites with info like this man!
Bookmarked!
my homepage :: how to get pregnant faster :: ::
Publicar un comentario